Summary 2 divination Definitions Forecasting is the process of estimation in uncharted situations A portend is a prediction base d on knowledge of outgoing behavior Requirements for a forecast Validity disagreement evaluation of probability Good forecasting is based on science, art, and luck Forecasting is both a science and an art cognition forecasting equations statistics/ regress analysis Art undecomposed at guessing (judgmental forecasting) honourable at picking the localise quality of forecasting equation We forecast phenomena and processes which we are unable to retard 3 4 Forecasting Basic Steps The forecast Time Series Models Extrapolation of historic selective information into the time to come Plotted on graph and analysed for four raw substantive comp 1nts of variation 5 Step 6 Monitor the forecast Step 5 Prepare the forecast Step 4 Gather and fail data Step 3 mete out a forecasting technique Step 2 show a clock horizon Step 1 examine purpose of forecast Trend - long-term movement in data Seasonality - short-term habitue var iations in data turn wavelike variations of! more than one years continuation Irregular variations - caused by uncommon circumstances Random variations - caused by chance Simple heavy amount, median, mode Simple contemptible average, double moving average Exponential smoothing Linear regression Multiplicative model 6 Examples Used where good historical data is available 1 Elements of any...If you want to get a ample essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com
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